Free shots on target tips and player SOT predictions from Betting Village, updated regularly in the module above, with the full method explained below. A shots-on-target bet is a wager on how many of a player’s (or team’s) attempts on goal will be on target during a match, settled using official match data rather than the final score.
How We Pick Our Shots on Target Tips
Picking a shots-on-target bet is not about finding a player who takes a lot of shots. It is about finding a player whose genuine shooting rate is being underpriced by the market. That means working through the same checklist every time, in roughly this order.
Shooting Rate: Shots and SOT Per 90
The starting point is a player’s shots on target per 90 minutes, not their raw shot count. A player firing from 25 yards regularly will rack up shots without troubling the goalkeeper, while a poacher who gets two efforts a game but puts both on target is the more reliable shout for a 1+ line. We look at SOT per 90 over a reasonable run of games rather than a single standout display.
Minutes, Role, and Set-Piece Duties
A shooting rate only means something if the player is on the pitch long enough to use it. We check expected minutes, the likelihood of starting, and whether a manager tends to rotate in this fixture type. Role matters too: a striker and an attacking midfielder can share a similar SOT per 90, but a winger cutting inside onto their stronger foot behaves differently from a target man waiting for crosses. Penalty and free-kick duties are worth noting separately, since they add shot attempts that a player’s open-play numbers will not show.
The Opponent and the Match-Up
The same player’s shooting rate is worth more against a side that concedes many shots than against a well-organised low block. We weigh the opponent’s shots conceded per 90, how the fixture is likely to be played territorially, and whether the player’s team is at home or away, since shot volume tends to shift with both venue and the expected balance of possession.
Checking the Price for Value
Once we have a working view of the probability, the last step is comparing it with what the odds imply. If our estimate of a 1+ shots on target chance sits meaningfully above the offer price, that is a value bet. If it sits below, we leave it alone, regardless of how well the player has been playing. Recent form over the last few games is weighed against the season average here, too, since a short hot or cold streak often looks more significant than it really is.
We do not publish strike rates, profit figures, or long-term tip records on this page. Every figure below is calculated from stated inputs, not drawn from a results history.
From Shooting Rate to Probability: What a Fair Price Looks Like
Once you know a player’s average shots on target per 90 minutes, you can turn it into a probability using the Poisson distribution, a standard way of modelling how often something happens over a fixed period. In simple terms, it uses the player’s average to estimate how likely they are to register zero, one, two or more shots on target in a match.
The table below shows what that looks like at different shooting rates, assuming the player completes the full 90 minutes. Fair odds are the price that exactly matches the chance: anything bigger is potentially value, anything shorter is not.
| SOT per 90 | Chance of 1+ | In 10 games, lands about… | Fair odds (1+) | Chance of 2+ | Fair odds (2+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 39% | 4 | 2.54 | 9% | 11.09 |
| 0.8 | 55% | 6 | 1.82 | 19% | 5.23 |
| 1.0 | 63% | 6 | 1.58 | 26% | 3.78 |
| 1.2 | 70% | 7 | 1.43 | 34% | 2.96 |
| 1.5 | 78% | 8 | 1.29 | 44% | 2.26 |
| 2.0 | 86% | 9 | 1.16 | 59% | 1.68 |
This is a modelling tool, not a guarantee. It treats shots as independent events occurring at a steady rate, which is a simplification of how a real match unfolds. Still, it provides a transparent baseline against which to compare the bookmaker’s price, which is the whole point of the calculation.
How to use this table: find the player’s average shots on target per 90, then compare the fair odds with what your bookmaker is offering. If the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the fair odds, the bet is potentially good value. If they are lower, the price is too short.
Example: a striker averaging 1.2 shots on target per 90 has fair odds of 1.43 for 1+. If a bookmaker offers 4/7 (1.57), that is bigger than the fair price, so it is worth a closer look. If they offer 2/5 (1.40), it is slightly too short, so we would pass.
Playing less than 90 minutes? Scale the average down first. A 1.2 per 90 player expected to play 60 minutes works out at about 0.8, so use that row instead.
What Shots on Target Odds Imply
Odds convert directly into an implied probability using 1 ÷ decimal odds. The table below shows representative prices to illustrate how the conversion behaves; your own market will show different numbers depending on the player and match.
| Decimal odds | Fractional odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| 2.00 | Evens | 50.0% |
| 2.50 | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| 3.00 | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| 4.00 | 3/1 | 25.0% |
Compare this figure with the 1+ or 2+ chance in the shooting rate table above. A gap in your favour is where the value sits; a gap against you is a sign to pass, however well the player is playing.
1+ or 2+ Shots on Target: Which Line Suits Which Player?
The 1+ line asks for a single attempt on target, so it suits most regular starters with a steady shooting rate, since one effort on target is enough. The 2+ line is a harder ask and tends to suit players with a genuinely high shooting rate rather than occasional big performances, because the probability drops sharply once you need a second shot on target rather than a first. As the table above shows, moving from a 1.0 to a 1.5 SOT-per-90 rate lifts the 1+ chance by roughly 15 percentage points but lifts the 2+ chance by nearly 18, so the 2+ market rewards genuinely elite shooting rates more than the 1+ market does. For the full breakdown of how these two lines are typically priced and structured, see our guide to 1+ and 2+ shots on target lines.
Which Shots Count as On Target? (Settlement Rules)
Settlement rules vary slightly between bookmakers, so always check your operator’s own rules before placing a bet. As a general guide, most settle on official match data along these lines:
| Event | Typically counts as on target? |
|---|---|
| Goal | Yes |
| Shot saved by the goalkeeper | Yes |
| Shot blocked by an outfield player | No, unless blocked by the last defender on the line |
| Shot hitting the woodwork (no goal) | No |
| Shot hitting the woodwork then going in | Yes, as a goal |
| Deflected shot or own goal | Per bookmaker’s own rules |
| Player does not start the match | Bet void or settled per bookmaker’s rules |
This aligns with how official match data providers classify shots: a shot that hits the goal frame is logged as off target unless it goes in, and goalkeeper saves on a deliberate attempt are logged as on target. Opta also counts a shot as on target if it is blocked by the last outfield defender on the line and would otherwise have gone in. Always check your own bookmaker’s rules page before relying on this for settlement, since wording differs by operator.
Shots on Target Markets Explained
Shots on target betting covers more than a single player’s full-match total:
- Player SOT: a named player’s own shots on target, usually offered as over/under or 1+/2+ lines.
- Team and match SOT: the combined shots on target for one side, or both sides, added together.
- Headed shots on target: a subset market for attempts made with the head specifically.
- Shots from outside the box: attempts taken from distance.
- First half and both halves: splits the same markets by period rather than full match.
Shots on target is also one of the most common legs in a Bet Builder, where it can sit alongside goalscorer, card and corner markets from the same match. For the fundamentals of combining markets this way, our Bet Builder guide covers the basics.
Using Shots on Target in Bet Builders, Doubles, and Trebles
A shots-on-target selection can be combined with other markets, including goalscorer bets, in a Bet Builder, or combined across different matches as a double, treble, or larger accumulator. For a double, treble or accumulator across different matches, each leg’s probability is multiplied together, so adding legs always lowers the overall chance of the whole bet landing, even when every individual leg looks reasonable in isolation. A 1+ SOT leg at 60% combined with another leg at 60% gives a combined probability of roughly 36%, not 60%. Bet Builder legs from the same match work differently: they are often linked (a striker’s shots on target and his team winning tend to go together), so bookmakers adjust the combined price for that rather than simply multiplying the odds. Either way, every extra leg makes the bet harder to land. That does not make accumulators a bad bet, just a higher-risk, higher-return one; singles and doubles are the steadier way to play shots on target.
Leagues and Competitions
Shot volume is shaped as much by league style as by individual ability. Leagues with a higher tempo and more transitions tend to produce more shots per game across the board, which lifts the baseline SOT-per-90 figures you would expect even from a mid-table player. More defensively structured competitions, or fixtures between two cautious sides, tend to suppress shot counts regardless of the individual talent on the pitch. Shot volume also shifts from one season to the next with rule changes, squad turnover, and changes in managerial approach, so we work from current-season figures drawn from sources such as Opta’s official data or the Premier League’s own statistics pages, rather than relying on last season’s numbers.
Shots on Target Tips: FAQs
How does Betting Village pick shots on target tips?
We start from a player’s shots on target per 90, adjust for expected minutes, role, and set-piece duties, weigh the opponent’s shots conceded, and check whether the resulting probability beats the price on offer. The full method is set out above.
What does a player 1+ shots on target bet mean?
It settles as a winner if the named player registers at least one shot on target during the match, based on official match data, regardless of the final score.
Do blocked shots or shots off the post count as on target?
Generally, no. A shot that hits the woodwork without going in is settled as not on target, and so are most blocked shots. The exception is a shot blocked by the last defender on the line that would otherwise have gone in, which Opta counts as on target. Always confirm this with your own bookmaker’s rules before betting.
Does a goal count as a shot on target?
Yes. A goal is, by definition, an attempt that was on target and resulted in the ball crossing the line.
What happens to a shot on target bet if the player doesn’t start?
This depends on the bookmaker. Some void the bet and refund the stake; others settle it as a loss if the player does not appear at all. Check your bookmaker’s own rules before placing the bet.
Is 1+ or 2+ shots on target better value?
Neither is better value by default; it depends on the individual player’s shooting rate and the price available. A player with a high shots on target per 90 can offer value on the harder 2+ line, while a player with a lower rate is usually better suited to the 1+ line.
Can I add shots on target to a Bet Builder?
Yes. Shots on target is a standard Bet Builder market on most major bookmakers and can be combined with goalscorer, card, and other match markets within the same selection.
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